"It Looks More Like Someplace That You'd Run From"

Not much blogging today. I've been reading what I can on the bombing in Beirut. I've still no clear idea what I think of it all. Although I have a few thoughts they don't exactly hang together as a coherent whole.

• It seems likely that Syria is behind the attack, either as the direct actor or working through a proxy.
• There is a call for an "international investigation" of the bombing, but I cannot imagine the Lebanese government, a Syrian puppet regime, will go along with the idea.
• I've always thought that there must be a way to "do business" with Assad. Maybe that wasn't the brightest thought I'd ever had.
• France and the U.S. should be able to find some common ground in a shared desire to keep the peace in Lebanon. We worked together on the U.N. resolution calling for the withdrawl of Syrian forces from Lebanon, we can continue to work together. It's time for Condi to earn her pay.
• Putin has a keen interest in Russia's relatons with Syria. How Putin reacts in this matter will say a lot. My gut instinct is that he will back Assad. After Russia's humiliation in the Ukrainian elections, Putin will not be looking to make things easy for the U.S. or the West Europeans.

Over at American Future, Marc Shulman has spelled out a possible play-by-play scenario that leads from this bombing to an Iraqi government call for war against Syria. I'm not sure I find it entirely convincing. For starters, such behavior on the part of the Iraqi government would be (rightly) seen as duplicity on the U.S.' part. If armed conflict is going to take place between the U.S. and Syria we will be more up-front about it.

At The Moderate Voice, Joe Gandleman seems to agree that Syria is most likely to blame for the bombing, and is generally pessimistic on Lebanon's ability to avoid a new civil war. Joe quotes extensively from a wire report on rising violence within Lebanon.

At A Conservative Blog For Peace this is what they are saying:

This was carried out by technically sophisticated professionals and was well organised. The explosion was tremendous, creating a crater metres deep and metres wide due to an estimated hundreds of kilograms of explosives being used.

This is very serious news for the country, and for Syria as well. First and foremost, I make an earnest request to blog readers to pray for Lebanon, as this assassination crosses all red lines and, I'm afraid to say, can only mark the start of an escalating deterioration of stability in the country, as the strength and outrage of the opposition makes clear. The army is now on full alert, and both the French president and the Lebanese opposition in the person of MP Bassem Sabaa have called for an international investigation, with the latter holding the Syrian and Lebanese governments (the latter is seen by many Lebanese as an extension of the former) responsible for Hareeri's death.

People have to understand the man of power, influence, achievement, and longevity (about ten years as prime minister – most of the post-war years), that Mr. Hareeri was on the public stage for so long a time. Lebanon was a land of political assassinations during the war, but with much fewer occurences following its conclusion. Despite this history, I don't think anyone expected Hareeri of all individuals to fall as the primary target of the most serious assassination operation since the years of civil conflict. It is a very shocking event...

Adding:

People are trumpeting about the threat of a new civil war. I personally do not think this is very exaggerated. After this travesty of an act, the country can only find itself in a state approaching such. A difficult period lies ahead.

Over at Truth. Quante-fied they have noticed that Syria blames, who else, Israel for the bombing, despite the fact that it advances exactly none of Israel's positions to do so. (Iran blames the Israelis as well. Syria does have wonderful friends, no?)

Syria denies it had anything to do with the attack and instead pointed the finger at Israel.

"What happened was an attempt to shatter national unity in Lebanon, to sow anarchy and divisions which lead to a climate of civil war," said government newspaper Tishrin.Israel "continues to work to sabotage Lebanon's achievements to try to bring anarchy to the country and to be able to continue its occupation of the Shebaa Farms", a disputed strip of land along the Israeli border, the newspaper added.

An interesting idea, except that it disregards all the facts that Hariri was very strongly opposed to Syria's control over Lebanon and had been a very popular figure in his country. Further, when Israel does take action, they employ surgical strikes, not massive bombs that kill 14 and leave over 120 injured. If Syria is indeed responsible for this attack, taking direct action against them diplomatically would be a reasonable and logical choice for our response, but if it fails to bring them to heel, military action would need to be considered.

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Everything I've ever read about Beirut and Lebanon in peaceful times has instilled in me a desire to go there. I hope it becomes a peaceful enough place for me to visit while I'm not an old man. I'm not counting on it, however.

A SPECIAL NOTE: I'm offering a dinner and a night of drinks on me to the first person who can come up with the FULL reason I've named this post as I have.