This Is The Funniest Thing I've Seen In Ages

I know... I know... I'm a dork.

Sad And True

It turns out The Onion was following me around during my college years: But If We Started Dating It Would Ruin Our Friendship Where I Ask You To Do Things And You Do Them

I really like you. I do. You're so nice, and sweet, and you listen to all my problems and respond with the appropriate compliments. But, well, I don't really see a relationship in our future. It would be terrible if we let sex destroy this great friendship we have where I get everything I want and you get nothing you want. Don't you think?

I knew you would understand. You always do.

We're so perfect as friends, you know? I can tell you anything, and you know you can always come to me anytime you need to hear me bitch about work or how ugly I feel. You wouldn't want to ruin a friendship like that just so you could be my boyfriend, and have me look at you with desire and longing in my eyes, if only once—would you? Of course not. Well, if we started dating, it would only complicate this wonderful setup I've got going here.

It's just…you're like my best friend, and I would hate for something you desperately want to change that. I mean, sure, we could go on some dates, maybe mess around a little and finally validate the six years you've spent languishing in this platonic nightmare, but then what? How could we ever go back to the way we were, where I take advantage of your clear attraction to me so I can have someone at my beck and call? That part of our friendship means so much to me.

I guess it is kinda comforting to know my brand of stupidity wasn't exclusive to just me.

My Holiday Gift To You

No, I am not ending the blog.

What I am doing is posting a pic of myself in my new hat. (Yes, I am that much of a dork.)



C'mon, admit it. You know you wanted it.

I'll See Your "3 Dangerous Myths" And Raise You One Dumb Idea

I saw this "advice" to small businesses courtesy of US News:

Sales forecasting: It's hard enough to get it right without all the ways we get it wrong. It was on my mind over the long holiday weekend, and in this case, it wasn't a particularly cheery back-of-the-mind thought. My company's recent sales reflect the economic downturn.

Not cheery, perhaps, but now more than ever, managing your sales forecast is really important and very much misunderstood. Most people fear forecasting. They think some expert should do it. Visions of econometric models and weighted moving averages dance, devilishly, in their heads.

So why do people hate forecasting? It's mostly because of myths and misunderstandings. Such as, among others, these three:

Myth 1: It's About Accurate Forecasting

Not really. We're all just human, so we don't predict the future all that well....

Myth 2: It's for Experts

Again, not really. In the real world, forecasting is a matter of good educated guessing in rows and columns on a spreadsheet. Real people, the ones who run the business, think about what they can realistically expect....

Myth 3: You Can Manage Without it

Managing a company without sales forecasting—the forecast, the actual results, and the management that follows—is about as smart as driving a car without a steering wheel, or maybe I should say with your windshield covered in black paint.

This prompted a response by yours truly:

Speaking as someone who ran a small business for a number of years, a lot of this strikes me as nonsense. I mean, I'm sure this is the way folks who teach business in universities want the world to work, but it is as far from the real world as I can imagine.

1. You admit up front that the "forecasts" have little to do with what actually happens. This is not a "so what" moment. Producing these "forecasts" take time and energy away from other things one could be doing. In any small business there are never enough hours in the day to do what needs to be done. Even the most cursory of a cost/benefit analysis would tell you to dump the attempts at "forecasting" as being, at best, non-productive, and, at worst, counter-productive.

2. I agree with the previous commentator; flexibility is the key. Forecasts can have the unintended effect of narrowing our options based upon what we believed would happen, as opposed to what actually happens. Yes, the author says you have to keep evaluating your situation, but how does a "forecast" help you do that? One could just as easily (or more easily) rely upon sales history (for example) to give one a comparison with present numbers.

3. It is a good rule of thumb to always be wary of what my father used to call "Onageristic Estimates." (An onager is the name of a wild ass....so an Onageristic Estimate is a "wild ass guess.") Such guesses were only employed when other methods/answers were, A) unavailable, or B) too costly (in one way or another.) You believed in an Onageristic Estimate at your own peril. The thought of an inventory manager basing her buying upon such a number should send shivers of horror through the mind of any small business owner.

That just about covers it.

The Battle Will Continue

A political junkies dream come true: Via Powerline

Last night, Greta van Susteren interviewed Hillary Clinton on Fox News. This was the most interesting exchange:

VAN SUSTEREN: And if he says, no, I won't do it, that leaves Michigan and Florida out. And does that leave you out?
CLINTON: No. Not at all, because we are going to make sure those votes get counted, one way or another.

VAN SUSTEREN: How?

CLINTON: Well, you know, you can always go to the convention. That is what credential fights are for. You know, let's have the Democratic Party go on record against seating the Michigan and Florida delegations three months before the general election? I don't think that will happen. I think they will be seated. So that is where we are headed if we don't get this worked out.

This will be the much needed remedy for those of our fellow citizens who believe politics should be like an episode of Mr. Roger's Neighborhood, instead of the sausage making factory it is and NEEDS to be.

I've Said It Once, I'll Say It Again...

...I'm really a dork of almost unimaginable proportions.

I cannot help myself, but I'm almost 40 years old and I'm truly excited about the new Indiana Jones movie. (See the newly released tralier here.) I even watched the godawful Good Morning America program to get an early look at the thing.

It's a sickness really.