More Silly Poll Questions

This time from Fox News:

21. Do you think most Democrats want the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week to succeed and lead to a stable Iraq or do they want it to fail and for him to have to withdraw U.S. troops in defeat?

SCALE: 1. Most Democrats want Bush plan to succeed 2. Most Democrats want Bush plan to fail 3. (Some want one thing, some another) 4. (Don’t know)

Success, Failure, Some one-some another, (DK)
16-17 Jan 07 32% 48 8 11
Democrats 42% 38 7 12
Republicans 21% 67 7 5
Independents 30% 42 11 17

This is a nightmarishly bad question. But aside the question of the uselessness of the question (this would definitely fail the "who cares?" test), but even if you took the premise as a good one it is abysmally presented. If you are asking folks what they think "most" of another group think how could you possibly have a category called "Some want one thing, some another"? Even if you thought 98% of Democrats wanted the plan to fail, you could still logically answer "Some want one thing, some another."

Formal logic should really be a required course for everyone.

In addition, evidently no one at Fox has heard of a priming effect, because they give these questions in succession:

14. Do you support or oppose sending additional U.S. troops to Iraq to help stabilize the country?

15. Do you think sending about 22,000 additional U.S. troops increases or decreases the likelihood of stabilizing the situation in Iraq, or will it not make much difference?

16. If you were a member of Congress, how would you vote specifically on increasing U.S. troop levels in Iraq -- would you vote for or against funding the increase in troops?

17. Regardless of how you would vote on sending more troops to Iraq -- If you were a member of Congress, would you vote to continue funding the current level of U.S. troops in Iraq or would you vote against funding the war altogether to try to force a troop withdrawal?

18. Do you consider the plan announced by President Bush last week to be a real change in U.S. strategy in Iraq or not a change in strategy at all?

19. Do you personally want the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week to succeed?

Only then do they ask:

20. How likely do you think it is that the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week will succeed?

I think the placing of the question helps explain why nearly 1/4 of the respondents (and 2/5 of Democrats) said they wanted the plan to fail. I think folks were hearing question 19 as if that was the one asking them if they thought the plan would succeed.

At least that is what I want to believe. If the numbers of Democrats who actively want the US to fail in Iraq are really within the margin of error of those who want us to succeed...