Daily Kos: "We Will Accept Nothing Less Than Total Defeat"

As is often the case over at the DK, they have got themselves into such a tizzy that their reading comprehension skills are slipping. In a missive entitled Angry, Impassioned Activists Take Over the World! (I couldn't make this shit up if I tried.)

A Los Angeles Times piece this morning, titled "Democrats feel liberals’ anti-war heat," with the subheading, "Freshman and veteran lawmakers alike risk the ire of bloggers and other activists if they waver on an Iraq exit," contains this interesting piece of goofy analysis:

"Some moderate Democrats worry that the pressure being applied by the antiwar left is misguided, arguing that voters want a change of course in Iraq but not a rapid withdrawal.

Conventional wisdom says that presidential candidates who want to be responsible on this are going to hurt themselves with the angry, impassioned activist left," said Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a centrist Democratic think tank. "But the activist left is out of sync with the American public. Americans don't want to concede this is a total debacle."

How out of touch are we, the "angry, impassioned activist left?" Well, about this much, according to the most recent Gallup poll:

Bush's expected announcement of increased U.S. troop levels in Iraq runs counter to the public's expressed desire. Just 12% of Americans choose an increase in troop levels when presented with four U.S. options for dealing with Iraq, and only 36% say they would favor a Bush proposal that would temporarily increase the number of U.S. troops to stabilize the situation in Iraq.

Apparently, the country is seething with members of the "angry, impassioned activist left." No longer relegated to the fringe, Gallup’s numbers indicate they are everywhere -- everywhere!

This all seems to be of a piece with the DK general tone. They are pissed off because Bush is still trying to win the war. That is Bush's real sin. He wants to win the war. For the DK and its ilk we only learn our moral lesson if the US loses the war. And when a newspaper article has the temerity to suggest that the American people in general do not wish to lose the war, the DK is shocked!

The DK ramble continues:

When you stand in a line of three at the grocery store, only one of you wants even a temporary increase in troops to "stabilize the situation in Iraq." Odds are, none of you wants a non-temporary, open-ended troop increase such as the president, by all reports, is going to announce tonight.

Well lets see what the Gallup Poll refered to by the DK says on the matter.

Gallup asked the following question:

Here are four different plans the U.S. could follow in dealing with the war in Iraq. Which ONE do you prefer -- [ROTATED: withdraw all troops from Iraq immediately, withdraw all troops by January 2008 -- that is, in 12 months' time, withdraw troops, but take as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis,(or) send more troops to Iraq]?

Response #1=Withdraw Now
Response #2=Withdraw within 12 months
Response #3=Withdraw, take as many years as needed
Response #4=Add troops

-------#1---#2---#3---#4-
Jan/07 15%, 39%, 31%, 12%


I'll admit this is a strangely constructed poll. Think of it in terms of set theory. The first three responses represent separate sets; that is, respondents could logically only belong to one set. However, the fourth option "Send More Troops" could overlap, especially with the 3rd option, but even potentially with the 2nd. But let's take it at face value for the moment.

The first response is clearly the DK defeatist battle cry. The second is the cry of many Democrats in Congress who do not want an "open ended" commitment. The third response can only be categorized as "stay the course." The fourth is a little more nebulous, but it obviously is a "Lets try and make something positive happen." So it looks like the polls say 54% want to get out sometime within a year, and 43% want to still try and win the war.

Lets look at these polls as a series:
Response #1=Withdraw Now
Response #2=Withdraw within 12 months
Response #3=Withdraw, take as many years as needed
Response #4=Add troops

-------#1---#2---#3---#4
Jan/07 15%, 39%, 31%, 12%
Oct/06 20%, 34%, 35%, 9%
Sep/06 17%, 31%, 42%, 9%
Jul/06 19%, 36%, 35%, 6%
Jul/06 19%, 33%, 38%, 7%
Jun/06 17%, 33%, 41%, 8%
Jun/06 17%, 32%, 42%, 6%
Mar/06 19%, 35%, 39%, 4%
Nov/05 19%, 33%, 38%, 7%


Now, if someone wanted to be disingenuous, one could correctly claim that the call to Withdraw Now! has never been more unpopular, and the call for more troops never more popular.

It probably makes most sense to look at the first two responses as forming a "block" and the last two as forming another. That would make the polls look like:


-----(#1+#2)(#3+#4)
Jan/07 54%, 43%
Oct/06 54%, 44%
Sep/06 48%, 51%
Jul/06 55%, 41%
Jul/06 52%, 45%
Jun/06 50%, 49%
Jun/06 49%, 48%
Mar/06 54%, 43%
Nov/05 52%, 45%

Looks pretty steady over time to me.

So when the DK exclaims that "no one wants an open ended commitment" you have to remember that, to them, 43% of Americans are, well, nobody.