Location, Location, Location

Like most everyone else in the country, you are probably on pins and needles wondering about the prospects of Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack running for President in 2008. (Wha? You're not?)

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register has an interesting take on Vilsack and the Iowa caucus. Yepsen argues that the prominent early position of the Iowa caucus works against Vilsack today, just as it did with Sen. Tom Harkin's bid in 1992. Vilsack in '08 race? Judge his support for caucus

It's doubtful Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack really wants the 2008 Democratic presidential nominating process to start with the Iowa caucuses. Oh, he may say he does, but deep in his soul he'd love it if the whole thing began someplace else.Reason? He might run for president himself in 2008.
Instead of being a springboard for the hometown boy, Iowa's caucuses could be a deathtrap.

Here's how it works: The conventional wisdom is that if Vilsack ran for president in 2008, he would be an early front-runner in Iowa because it is his home state. Everyone would "expect" him to do well and even win big.

As is often the case, he could be victimized by that expectations game. If he won Iowa by a big margin, many in the political world would only shrug and say it's no big deal. Vilsack would get little bounce out of such a win.

But if he lost, or just won a narrow victory, it would be seen as a huge political defeat because political types would conclude: "Gee, the guy couldn't even do well in his home state."

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin discovered how this worked when he ran for president in 1992. The other candidates bypassed Iowa. But Harkin was still in the position of having to spend time and resources in his home state to win "big." When he did - with something like 77 percent of the vote - nobody cared. It was a hollow victory because no one else ran against him here.

His "bounce" was a "thud": Harkin finished fourth in the New Hampshire primary, and then lost the South Dakota primary to Bob Kerrey of Nebraska. Harkin's campaign folded shortly thereafter.

Yepsen is right. Vilsack is pretty much screwed.

I've always thought that having the Iowa caucus and New Hamshire primary isolated out front in the presidential primary selection process was a terrible idea. Either party would be better served by having a first round of primaries that involved 7 or 8 states spread across the country and all voting on the same day. Iowa and New Hampshire could still be a part of that process, though they will lose their "extra special" status. (It amazes me that we have to hold onto this clunky selection process basically because it helps the self-esteem of the folks in Nashua and Iowa City.) Someone tell them to buck up and take one for their country!

But, as a wise man and former roommate said, they probably won't change it just for me.