Wednesday, October 14, 2009

"Nobody Here But Us Non Stalinist Types"

How scared is the AGW crowd of people hearing another side of the debate? Pretty scared. From FIRE: Victory for Freedom of Expression at University of Arizona; Showing of ‘Not Evil, Just Wrong’ Back on Schedule

The University of Arizona has reversed course and permitted the College Republicans to screen the film Not Evil, Just Wrong as originally scheduled, just days after telling the group that its reservation was being cancelled due to a scheduling mistake. The "mix-up" was discovered only 11 days before the event, making it difficult to reschedule. After a joint investigation by FIRE and a UA College Republicans (UACR) leader showed that the scheduling conflict might not have been a mistake, the screening was placed back on the schedule for October 18.

According to UACR Director of Communications Katie Pavlich, on September 23, 2009, she requested use of the university's Gallagher Theater for an October 8, 5:00 pm, showing of Not Evil, Just Wrong, a documentary about "the true cost of global warming hysteria." The date and time were important to the group because of the stated goal of the Not Evil producers to earn a "World Record for the largest ever simultaneous film premiere." The request was granted by Hollyanne Fricke, Manager of the Gallagher Theater and Graduate Assistant for Social Justice Programs for The Center for Student Involvement & Leadership (CSIL).

A Google cache of the Theater's schedule as of September 17 shows that the time was wide open. A Google cache of the same schedule as of October 7, however, shows that Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which was already being shown on both of the previous two nights, had now been scheduled for the 5:00 pm time slot on October 18....

The strange thing about this... other than its interesting timing, is that Family Weekend (a program of CSIL) is scheduled to end after a send-off brunch on October 18. Participants in Family Weekend apparently were never told that they should make plans to stay around for yet a third showing of the Transformers film the same weekend.

Unreal.

Typical, but still unreal.

Wacky Weather

It is weird stuff:

In the freezing foothills of Montana, a distinctly bitter blast of revolution hangs in the air.

And while the residents of the icy city of Missoula can stave off the -10C chill with thermals and fires, there may be no easy remedy for the wintry snap's repercussions.

The temperature has shattered a 36-year record. Further into the heartlands of America, the city of Billings registered -12C on Sunday, breaking the 1959 barrier of -5C.

Closer to home, Austria is today seeing its earliest snowfall in history with 30 to 40 centimetres already predicted in the mountains.
Such dramatic falls in temperatures provide superficial evidence for those who doubt that the world is threatened by climate change.


Well, I don't know about that, but it is becoming harder to argue all of the extreme winter weather we've been seeing the last few years (all time record cold in Argentina and Brazil last year, earliest snow fall in recorded history in Austria, etc.) is "consistent" with Global Warming.

Of course, if this continues for a few more years we will get the chicken littles merely reversing direction (again) and they will issue dramatic calls to reverse Anthropogenic Global Cooling.

I'll think that is just as stupid.

(Oh, and here in western Wisconsin we had some snow for four days straight, Oct. 8-11. Weird.)

Monday, October 12, 2009

Ugh

I'm sitting here at home because I'm sick. I'm hoping that I don't have the flu or strep throat, but neither would surprise me at the moment. I've been looking out the window at the show which has been falling for the last five hours, and I've been thinking "Could it possibly only be October 12th?"

I get a feeling we are going to be under the gun this winter. Considering we didn't have a summer to speak of either, I may just have to pony up for a Caribbean vacation this winter.

My wife probably wouldn't divorce me for it.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Some Of My Best Work Lies Hidden

Really, if I think about all the material I've written in the comment sections of other people's blogs, it gets a little scary. I mean, I've posted a lot of crap here, but you could probably add another 50% to that, easily. (I've got a problem.)

That being said, I do enjoy myself quite often. Over at Patterico he posted this plea the other day:

Do you know any “professors of social sciences, history, philosophy, law and theology” with a conservative bent and a sense of humor?

If so, I need to speak with them — so they can nominate me for a Nobel Peace Prize. Those are the people who qualify to make a nomination.

I responded thusly:

Well, I’m also an adjunct Poli. Sci. prof, but if that isn’t good enough there is another class of nominators:

directors of peace research institutes

I could found and become the director of the….

Obama Peace Institute
Our Motto: Pacis per Lentus (Peace through Inaction)

Our research would be dedicated to the study of how just sitting around on your ass, thinking peaceful thoughts, and occasionally giving voice to them, leads to global contentment. This could give rise to a wide range of scholarly studies including:

I) Stoning People: Peace through Cannabis

II) Siestas & Snuggies: Warmly Nap Your Way To Peace

III) The Monsters of Peace Tour: A Proposal to send Obama, Gore and Carter on a speaking tour where peace is brought about by mass suicides caused by a 7 hour long Power Point presentation.


Father Eicher, my high school Latin teacher, would be proud.

The U.N. Needs to STFU

Really, they are embarrassing themselves...more than usual: Use of mercenaries in Honduras on the rise

A group of independent U.N. experts expressed concern Friday over the increased use of mercenaries in Honduras, where a de facto president has been in power since a military-led coup in June.

OMG! I'll be there are roving bands of hired goon on the streets! Raping! Pillaging! Littering!!

Well, not so much.

The U.N. panel said it received reports that 40 former Colombian paramilitaries had been hired to protect properties and individuals in Honduras

What? The U.N. is raising a stink about 40 guys? 40 security guards?

I'll tell you what. Let's remove all the security guards... I mean mercenaries protecting the U.N. delegation in New York. After all, fair is fair.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

The BBC Has Broken From The AGW Crowd

It really looks like it has: What happened to global warming?

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

What's going on is exactly what all of us "deniers" said was going on in the first place; that the models being used to sell this "crisis" were faulty, offering a simplistic forcing mechanism that ran rough-shod over not only the scientific process, but reality itself. In positing CO2 as the primary driver of climate, the AGW crowd was always more or less insane. (It isn't even the most important of the greenhouse gases. Water vapor is.) They were basically telling us that the only important difference taking place in the world in the last half of the 20th Century was man-made CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Every other factor (solar variability, cloud cover, ocean temperature, increased urbanization, etc.), we were told, was a complete wash. We, of course, had temperature variations in the historical record on the order of the one we experienced in the decade 1988-1998, including a substantial number that were more pronounced. Could we in fact, the "lunatic deniers" asked, be experiencing something quite precedented?

The answer was yes.

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

The interesting part here, of course, is not so much the prospect of future cooling but the idea that the warming we did experience up to 1998 can be linked to a natural climate feature we would associate with warming trends. The whole point of "CO2 rah-rahism" is that it alone was "driving" climate. It was, we were assured, an "overwhelming" force. Turns out it wasn't "overwhelming overwhelming."

Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.

But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

How is this in any way the theory they have been peddling for the last 20 years? Either CO2 "overwhelms" the natural rhythms of climate, or it does not. An "overwhelming" force does not get to take a smoke break for 20-30 years while it allows other forces to rule the day until it feels like reasserting itself in the future.

It's nonsense. It's always been nonsense.

I'm intrigued by this nugget on solar variation from the BBC piece:

[O]ne solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting... claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.


Well, I'll be interested in seeing what he has to present, although I'd be wary of simply exchanging CO2 solipsism for a solar variation solipsism. That being said, because of the general importance of the sun to our climate (duh!), it already has the benefit of being at least plausible.

Friday, October 09, 2009

Interpretation

Here is what Prof. Paul Rahe says:

There is, [Charles Krauthammer] argues, an intimate connection between the foreign policy being pursued by the Obama administration and its domestic policy. The work undertaken in the domestic sphere by what I have called "Obama's wrecking crew" will, he points out, put a stop to the pattern of dynamic economic growth that made it possible for the United States to defeat Japan, contribute decisively to the defeat of Nazi Germany, contain communism, and ultimately defeat and prepare the way for the dismemberment of the Soviet Union.

It will produce economic stagnation of the sort that the Europeans have suffered from for decades, and it will eventuate in a collapse of the American dollar

This, as Krauthammer shows, Obama and his minions understand, and this they want -- the elimination of the foundations for American hegemony and the crippling of this country. They regard the role that we have thus far played in the world as shameful; they are intent on dismembering the alliances that gave us our heft in the world; and they are not only appeasing our sworn enemies but openly, publicly embracing them and their agenda.

This explains the praise showered on President Obama by Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez, and Fidel Castro. This is the meaning of our attempt to install a dictator in the Honduras on the model of Castro and Chavez; it is the meaning of our recent betrayal of Poland -- on the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of that country.

It explains why Obama initially responded to the open theft of an election in Iran by professing his confidence in the Iranian government and why the State Department recently cut off funds for the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center in New Haven, Connecticut, which was collecting information on the imprisonment, torture, and murder of those in Iran who protested against the theft of that election (for the details see this post).

It explains the deliberate insults offered Gordon Brown of Great Britain and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, which I catalogued here and here. And, of course, this explains the speeches given abroad again and again by President Obama, apologizing for American behavior in the past. and signaling a radical shift in American policy.

It is for this change of posture that our President has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. And if you think that the United States is the principal source of evil in the world, you should vigorously applaud. My bet is that in his acceptance speech Obama will confirm Charles Krauthammer's worst fears and my own.


Now, all of the actions of Obama and his administration listed above are true. That does not mean the interpretation of those actions given by Rahe is true. That being said, can you come up with an alternative explanation that encompasses all of the facts listed above and exonerates the President and his motives?

Maybe it is possible, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

This Isn't From The Onion ?


You have got to be kidding me:

President Barack Obama won the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for "his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples," the Norwegian Nobel Committee said

What a joke. The man has done nothing but given a couple speeches.

Oddly enough, this leaves me speechless.

I can hear the Nobel committee deliberations now:

So, you've worked your whole life trying to bring people together? Living with them, sharing their hopes, joys, and fears?

Well, step aside chumps! The Americans have elected a black guy!


Granted, I've never had much respect for the work of this body, but this is astonishingly shallow.

UPDATE:

I'm not the only one asking, Am I awake?

Then there is this from the Times of London: Absurd decision on Obama makes a mockery of the Nobel peace prize

The award of this year’s Nobel peace prize to President Obama will be met with widespread incredulity, consternation in many capitals and probably deep embarrassment by the President himself.

Rarely has an award had such an obvious political and partisan intent. It was clearly seen by the Norwegian Nobel committee as a way of expressing European gratitude for an end to the Bush Administration, approval for the election of America’s first black president and hope that Washington will honour its promise to re-engage with the world.

Instead, the prize risks looking preposterous in its claims, patronising in its intentions and demeaning in its attempt to build up a man who has barely begun his period in office, let alone achieved any tangible outcome for peace....

Mr Obama becomes the third sitting US President to receive the prize. The committee said today that he had “captured the world’s attention”. It is certainly true that his energy and aspirations have dazzled many of his supporters. Sadly, it seems they have so bedazzled the Norwegians that they can no longer separate hopes from achievement. The achievements of all previous winners have been diminished.


UPDATE x2: Great Minds Thinking Alike Edition

From QandO:

I can only hope this is Obamamania cresting – the man has accomplished nothing in the 9 months he’s been in office and he’s given a Nobel Peace Prize for a fantasy project? If you think his narcissism is dangerous now, just wait. At first I thought this was an Onion headline....

I wonder what the over-under is for the number of times he mentions himself in the acceptance speech?


UPDATE x3:

Even liberals are aghast:

I like Barack Obama as much as the next liberal, but this is a farce. He’s done nothing to deserve the prize. Sure, he’s given some lovely speeches and launched some initiatives—on Iran, Israeli-Palestinian peace, climate change and nuclear disarmament—that might, if he’s really lucky and really good, make the world a more safe, more just, more peaceful world. But there’s absolutely no way to know if he’ll succeed, and by giving him the Nobel Prize as a kind of “atta boy,” the Nobel Committee is actually just highlighting the gap that conservatives have long highlighted: between Obamamania as global hype and Obama’s actual accomplishments.

He's right. The truth is this is so piss poor it invites, hell, it begs for a pretty strong backlash. A backlash, I have to add, that will be entirely justified.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Who Fact Checks The Fact Checkers?

Well, according to PolitFact, an arm of the St. Petersburg Times which is being touted by the DNC as being damn near the Gospel, they don't need no stinking fact checkers. They are honest because they say they are honest. Really, the question is "How do we know that PolitFact is honest in its appraisals and approaches?"

Here is how PolitFact dodges the question:

As we've gained new readers since the election, every now and then we get e-mails that ask, "Who's paying for this Web site? Who's putting out this information?"

The short answer is this: PolitiFact is a project of the St. Petersburg Times to help you find the truth in American politics....

Yeah, yeah, you say. But who owns the Times?

Who gives a crap? Finding out who owns a news gathering organization doesn't prove the honesty of said organization. The question remains, how do we know you, regardless of who owns you, are honest?

But when it comes to the question of "Who is PolitiFact?" or "Who pays for PolitiFact?", we can assure you that no one is behind the scenes telling us what to write for someone else's benefit.

Even if this is true, and I'm assuming it is though I have no way of knowing that for sure, the question remains: "Why should I trust you?"

Their answer? "Because we say so!"

We are an independent, nonpartisan news organization. We are not beholden to any government, political party or corporate interest. We are proud to be able to say that we are independent journalists.

I'm sorry but it is possible for people to be corrupted by their own personal ideological motives. In fact, self-interest is kinda the number one way in which truth gets perverted. Now we know from surveys of the profession that self-identifying left leaning journalists outnumber right leaning journalists by almost two to one (see here and here) and are way out of proportion when compared to the American population as a whole. This being true, why is it safe for me as a reader to just assume the bunch of journalists at PolitiFact are playing it straight? The fact is it isn't safe.

I pulled a couple of their stories to check on the fair-mindedness of PolitiFact, and, lets just say I've found them wanting. For example, in this post concerning H. Leighton Steward we read the following:

PlantsNeedCO2.org is skeptical. The organization, which is still awaiting its nonprofit status, is the brainchild of Leighton Steward, a self-described geologist, environmentalist, author, and retired energy industry executive.[emphasis added]

The implication of the wording "self-described geologist" is clear. We are supposed to believe that Steward isn't an actual geologist, only a "self-described" one.

Well, it turns out that is wrong and PolitiFact lied (or "purposely misled", if that makes you feel better.) Steward in fact has an MS degree in Geology granted by SMU in 1959, and used that degree in the oil and gas fields for at least the period 1962-1997 (cite). But, hey, according to PolitiFact he's only a make believe geologist.

But, now that PolitiFact has gotten through impugning the man's academic credentials and three decades of work experience, let's see how they do with the issue:

The Web site is chock-full of links to papers, videos and other evidence that more carbon dioxide is actually good for the environment.

"Far from being a pollutant, rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations will never directly harm human health, but will indirectly benefit humans in a number of ways," according to the site....

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency disagrees.

On April 17, 2009, the agency said that thorough scientific review proved that carbon dioxide, along with several other greenhouse gases, are pollutants that threaten human health; it is taking steps to regulate the gases under the Clean Air Act, a law typically reserved for monitoring traditional pollutants including ozone and sulfur dioxide.

Ah, so PolitiFact has discovered a new way to solve scientific arguments; namely by calling upon the authority of the Federal government! Aren't we lucky to have this organ for solving all scientific conflicts at our fingertips?!?!

Funny thing is... being a Political Scientist by profession - or am I??? Maybe PolitiFact can invalidate my three degrees in the field and University teaching experience as well - I'm prone to thinking of the Federal government not as a neutral arbiter on any dispute, but the venue wherein ideological battle get fought and the prize being fought over. Last time I checked, Democrats and Republican still had different ideological visions, and still sought to impose those visions upon the Federal government through winning elections. (Maybe we stopped doing this and no one told us Political Scientists?)

So, I wonder.... was CO2 classified as a pollutant back in 2008? No, it wasn't. Hmmm... what about 2007? Nope. 2006? Sorry. But, it was designated as a pollutant by the Federal government, for the first time, in 2009.

Gee, what is different about the Federal government in 2009 from the Federal government in 2008? PolitiFact would have you believe nothing.

What this boils down to is PolitiFact is making a pronouncement on a point of public controversy (i.e. whether a naturally occurring molecule like CO2 can be legitimately classified as a man made pollutant), and saying, "Because the Democrats now control the Federal government, the controversy is over." And if you persist in trying to make your case, you are a liar.

That is, of course, nonsense. (Laughable nonsense, really.)

The second story I looked at was PolitiFact calling Michele Bachman a liar for raising concerns about the beliefs of Obama medical adviser Ezekiel Emanuel. Here is what Bachman said (quote from PolitiFact):

"The president's adviser, Dr. Emanuel, believes communitarianism should guide decisions on who gets care. He says medical care should be reserved for the non disabled. So watch out if you're disabled."

How does PolitiFact go about "debunking" this? Why they ask an Obama spokesman of course.

So the question is, is Emanuel saying that he thinks health services ought not to be guaranteed to patients [for example] with dementia?

No, said Kenneth Baer, a spokesman for the White House Office of Budget and Management. "He just unequivocally doesn't believe that."

There are two things wrong here. One, the method PolitiFact employs to "debunk" this is simply stupid. Here you have a matter of controversy which you will solve by taking the word of one of the disputants as if they were impartial. [And, yes, since Emanuel has a role in the administration it cannot reasonably present itself as an impartial outsider.] The question, after all, is not what Emanuel says now his words are causing controversy, but what he said.

And, did he say what Bachman said he said? Yes, he did.

In the piece in question, which is all of three pages but still taxed the PolitiFact researcher beyond the point of their endurance, Emanuel is concerned about the lack of universal health care in the United States. Emanuel thinks he knows the reason why this is so:

Underlying the repeated failure of attempts to
provide universal health care coverage in the United
States is the failure to develop a principled mechanism
for characterizing basic health services. Americans
fear that if society guarantees certain services
as "basic," the range of services guaranteed will expand
to include all-or almost all-available services
(except for cosmetic surgery and therapies not
yet proven effective or proven ineffective). So rather
than risk the bankruptcy of having nearly every
medical service socially guaranteed to all citizens,
Americans have been willing to tolerate a system in
which the well insured receive a wide range of medical
services with some apparently basic services uncovered;
Medicare beneficiaries receive fewer services
with some discretionary services covered and
some services that intuitively seem basic uncovered;
Medicaid beneficiaries and uninsured persons receive
far fewer services.

Notice, because this dates from the days of the failed Clinton health care proposals of the 1990's, the concerns are not exactly the same as we hear today, but that is irrelevant for our purposes. We are only interested in what Emanuel advocates for, which he conveniently tell us:

On this view, the reason the United States has
failed to enact universal health coverage is not primarily
political or economic; the real reason is ethical-
it is a failure to provide a philosophically defensible
and practical mechanism to distinguish basic
from discretionary health care services.


This "ethical failure" results, so Emanuel tells us, from a mistaken belief that defining such an ethics would merely be the imposition of one vision of the good upon those who define the good differently. Emanuel believe this is wrong, and spells out his alternative:

Fortunately, many, including many liberals, have
come to view as mistaken a liberalism with such a
strong principle of neutrality and avoidance of public
discussion of the good. Some think the change
a result of the critique provided by communitarianism;
others see it as a clarification of basic liberal
philosophy. Regardless, a refined view has emerged
that begins to create an overlap between liberalism
and communitarianism. This overlap inspires hope
for making progress on the just allocation of health
care resources. This refined view distinguishes issues
within the political sphere into four types: (1) issues
related to constitutional rights and liberties; (2) issues
related to opportunities, including health care
and education; (3) issues related to the distribution
of wealth such as tax policies; and (4) other political
matters that may not be matters of justice but are
matters of the common good, such as environmental
policies and defense policies. While there still
may be disagreement about the need for a neutral
justification for rights and liberties, there is consensus
between communitarians and liberals that policies
regarding opportunities, wealth, and matters of
the common good can only be justified by appeal
to a particular conception of the good.

That vision of the good to be adopted he defines as follows:

We may go even further. Without overstating it
(and without fully defending it) not only is there a
consensus about the need for a conception of the
good, there may even be a consensus about the particular
conception of the good that should inform
policies on these nonconstitutional political issues.
Communitarians endorse civic republicanism and a
growing number of liberals endorse some version
of deliberative democracy. Both envision a need for
citizens who are independent and responsibile and
for public forums that present citizens with opportunities
to enter into public deliberations on social
policies.

Now, this is the point at which the PolitiFact argument falls flat on its face. Here is what the PolitiFact article says:

Baer said, is that Emanuel was exploring different views of political theory as they apply to health care decisions and following one school of thought through to the point where he notes that it would lead to "potentially disturbing types of policy ramifications."

This is simply false. Any cursory reading of the original article would have made that perfectly clear. PolitiFact simply takes the word of the Obama spokesman at face value. (Gee, I wonder why.) The notion that Emanuel simply put this view out there in a discussion of many different alternatives, and Bachman is pulling it out of context to embarrass Emanuel is a lie.

This civic republican or deliberative democratic
conception of the good provides both procedural
and substantive insights for developing a just allocation
of health care resources. Procedurally, it suggests
the need for public forums to deliberate about
which health services should be considered basic
and should be socially guaranteed. Substantively, it
suggests services that promote the continuation of
the polity-those that ensure healthy future generations,
ensure development of practical reasoning
skills, and ensure full and active participation by citizens
in public deliberations-are to be socially guaranteed
as basic.

Notice, at no time does Emanuel qualify these statements to indicate they belong to anyone other than himself and fellow travellers who also believe it is "fortunate" that liberalism and communitarianism have found one another. (How touching.) So, when Emanuel follows the logic of his reasoning and states...

Conversely, services provided to individuals
who are irreversibly prevented from being
or becoming participating citizens are not basic and
should not be guaranteed. An obvious example is
not guaranteeing health services to patients with dementia.

...we have no reason to believe he doesn't mean it, or that he is talking about someone else. Indeed, based upon what Emanuel is arguing here it is clear that denying health services to people with dementia is merely an example. Presumably, their would be other examples. Indeed, it is easy to come up with other examples of human beings who fail the Emanuel's test because of disabilities that prohibit them from developing "practical reasoning skills [to] ensure full and active participation by citizens."

Not content with merely lying about what Bachman did and what Emanuel wrote, PolitiFact goes on to enagage in a little non sequitar action. Once again, parroting the Obama spokesman, PolitiFact adds:

Furthermore, he said, you need to balance McCaughey's claim against Emanuel's 25-year record of caring for very sick people, and specifically providing quality care to very ill patients at the end of their life.

Does he also help little old ladies across the street and buy Girl Scout cookies? That's all very nice, and totally irrelevant. (But isn't it a wonder?) But, hey, whats a little misdirection when you are PolitiFact?!

"He's a little surprised at how his record is being twisted and turned," Baer said. "It is preposterous that Ezekiel Emanuel would deny care to someone who needed it, or that he believes we should be making the sort of horrific medical decisions he's been accused of."

The poor dear. The problem is he proposes such things routinely. In this paper, for example, looking at the allocation of scarce medical resources (who gets a vaccine in short supply, or a transplant, etc.), Emanuel proposes the following under his scheme "The Complete Lives System":

Because none of the currently used systems satisfy all
ethical requirements for just allocation, we propose an
alternative: the complete lives system. This system
incorporates five principles: youngest-first,
prognosis, save the most lives, lottery, and instrumental
value. As such, it prioritises younger people who have not
yet lived a complete life and will be unlikely to do so
without aid. Many thinkers have accepted complete lives
as the appropriate focus of distributive justice: “individual
human lives, rather than individual experiences, [are] the
units over which any distributive principle should
operate.” Although there are important differences
between these thinkers, they share a core commitment to
consider entire lives rather than events or episodes, which
is also the defining feature of the complete lives system.
Consideration of the importance of complete lives also
supports modifying the youngest-first principle by
prioritising adolescents and young adults over infants.
Adolescents have received substantial education
and parental care, investments that will be wasted without
a complete life. Infants, by contrast, have not yet received
these investments. Similarly, adolescence brings with it a
developed personality capable of forming and valuing
long-term plans whose fulfilment requires a complete
life.

Notice, Emanuel is absolutely arguing for denying care to infants in a situation of scarce medical resources, in favor of older children who have had more "invested" in them. Whether the patient "needed" the the treatment is not our jumping off point here, thus Emanuel is most assuredly talking about denying care to those who would need it, particularly the oldest and the youngest among us. How it would work in practice is, of course, wishy-washy (much of Emanuel's work shares that as a basic characteristic), but it is an open question as to what would happen in the event of a catastrophic flu outbreak. Would Emanuel support diverting scarce vaccine away from older Americans and infants who might be more vulnerable to the disease, in favor of the younger and stronger just because we have not gotten the "return on our investment" yet? I don't know. But it is a valid question.

Now, I'm not saying it is illegitimate to have these types of discussions, and to pose these types of hypotheticals, but that does not mean Emanuel gets a "Get Out Of Public Controversey Free" card because he's an academic. It also doesn't mean you get to call Michele Bachman a liar when she calls him on it.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Mostly Bad Advice

U.S. News offers some bad advice to college students: 13 Ways to Make Your Professor Love You

Professors are human beings, too, with real human feelings. How your professor feels about you can influence how much time he or she is willing to put in to help you with the course, and even how good a recommendation he or she is willing to write for grad school or a job. Surprisingly enough, only 1 in 100 students thinks about this. Assuming you're one of the other 99, we offer you our baker's dozen of tips on how to ingratiate yourself to your professor:

Yes, because there is nothing we professors like better than ingratiating toadies!

1. Look interested.

Well, duh. If you are asleep or surfing the web, well, I won't think you are the greatest. But, you know what? Kids know this already. They actively decided, "Screw it."

2. Say hi to the professor when he or she enters the room.

This would bug the ever living hell out of me. Too much of this and I'd become W.C. Fields. "Get away kid, you bother me."

3. Ask a question.

As long as it isn't totally idiotic and/or shows a complete lack of engagement with the material.

4. Put in your two cents' worth.

See number 3 above.

5. Continue the conversation outside class.

Danger Will Studentson! Danger! If you are not engaged in the material, well, idiotic class comments don't get any better when they become one on one comments. Oh, under this heading US News gives this gem as well...

If you are shy, an E-mail to the professor following up on some issue raised in class can also do the trick.

AUGH!!!!!!! There is nothing I hate more than email from students! Besides, if the whole point is to "get in good" with the prof, this doesn't help do that. On an average work day I get 25-40 emails. Do you really think I'm gonna remember an email from some student whose face I couldn't pick out of a crowd?

6. Volunteer first.

This would be fine if they were seven and I wanted someone to clean my erasers. Otherwise, it's not gonna come up in my lecture class.

8. Ask the profs what they're working on.

Yes, we can be narcissistic bastards, but don't push it. This is particularly so if you aren't really interested. The average student is a bad liar and a worse actor. Don't try and fake it. That can only lead to bad things.

9. Participate in departmental activities.

This generally won't hurt you, and can help. But, as above, don't fake it.

10. Alert your professor to current events related to the class.

This is generally viewed by a prof as an attempt to avoid talking about the reading assignment for a given day. The prof might be OK with that, but that is what we feel is going on there.

11. Congratulate the professor on an achievement.

Help! Stalker!

12. Tell your prof you like the class.

While you are in the class, I don't wanna hear much about it. I'll buy a little, but not too much. If you are no longer in my class and want to talk me up, well, I'll eat that shit up with a spoon. You'll get bonus points if you are graduated.

13. Thank the professor when he or she does you a favor.

This is pretty good advice. This will also never happen.

I find it distressing that the real way to get in good with a prof is not listed. It's pretty simple actually.

DO THE DAMN READING!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's amazing how many good thing can flow from that.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

I'll Have To Designate A New More Moronic Kind Of Moron To Categorize This

Yikes! Conservapedia Launches Effort to Translate the Bible Into Conservativespeak

There's a verse in the Gospel of Mark in which Jesus enters a synagogue on the Sabbath and finds a man with a withered hand. "And they watched him," according to the King James version of the Bible, referring to those in the temple, "whether he would heal him on the sabbath day; that they might accuse him."

But a new—and still evolving—conservative translation of the Bible prefers a more populist, Glenn Beckish take: "The intellectuals watched Jesus to see if he might catch and accuse him of healing on the Sabbath."

The new translation is part of the Conservative Bible Project, sponsored by Conservapedia, a Wikipedia for the right. "Liberal bias has become the single biggest distortion in modern Bible translations," the project's home page explains.

You've got to be kidding me. Oh, don't get me wrong, there are some silly things going on with modern translations of the Bible (like the constant neutering of God), not to mention an almost pathological dislike of beauty and poetry. Richard John Neuhaus put it this way:

Back in May 2001, I wrote in this space, under the title “Bible Babel,” about the translation that is the unfortunate New American Bible (NAB). It is a subject that should not be dropped. Not, mind you, that I expect anybody to do anything about it any time soon. But some day, please God, there will be a real reform of the misguided reforms of recent decades, and the NAB (along with the Revised NAB and the Amended Revised NAB and whatever version of the NAB that crops up in this Sunday’s Mass guide) should be on the agenda. Robert Louis Wilken has written wisely that the Bible is the lexicon of the Church and the liturgy is the grammar of the Bible. Among Catholics subjected to the NAB, and all are now subjected to it, the lexicon takes a terrible beating.

Everyone who has sung or listened to Handel’s “Messiah” knows the words: “For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counselor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace” (Isaiah 9:6, KJV). Magnificent. Here, as of this week’s amended Missalette, is the New American Bible: “For a child is born to us, a son is given us; upon his shoulder dominion rests. They name him Wonder-Counselor, God-Hero, Father-Forever, Prince of Peace.” Try singing that.


Absolutely right. So, I'm certainly not against curbing the excesses of the soul-less translations that abound.

But attempting to read Smith, Hayek and Friedman back into the Bible is just plain nuts. And, yes, that is exactly what they want to do. Among their "guidelines":

1. Framework against Liberal Bias: providing a strong framework that enables a thought-for-thought translation without corruption by liberal bias...

4. Utilize Powerful Conservative Terms: using powerful new conservative terms as they develop; defective translations use the word "comrade" three times as often as "volunteer"; similarly, updating words which have a change in meaning, such as "word", "peace", and "miracle"

5. Combat Harmful Addiction: combating addiction by using modern terms for it, such as "gamble" rather than "cast lots"; using modern political terms, such as "register" rather than "enroll" for the census...

7. Express Free Market Parables; explaining the numerous economic parables with their full free-market meaning

8. Exclude Later-Inserted Liberal Passages: excluding the later-inserted liberal passages that are not authentic, such as the adulteress story

As I said before.... yikes!

Others on this:

The Anchoress: This is where I get off the boat.

Rod Dreher:

More seriously, the insane hubris of this really staggers the mind. These right-wing ideologues know better than the early church councils that canonized Scripture? They really think it's wise to force the word of God to conform to a 21st-century American idea of what constitutes conservatism? These jokers don't worship God. They worship ideology.


Ed Morrissey:

... if one believes the Bible to be the Word of God written for His purposes, which I do, then the idea of recalibrating the language to suit partisan political purposes in this age is pretty offensive — just as offensive as they see the “liberal bias” in existing translations. If they question the authenticity of the current translations, then the only legitimate process would be to work from the original sources and retranslate. And not just retranslate with political biases in mind, but to retranslate using proper linguistic processes and correct terminology.


All good thoughts, but I'd add this; No conservative, someone who had read (and understood) Edmund Burke or Michael Oakeshotte, would have even begun such a process. A real conservative would have honored the tradition and not attempted to pervert scripture to suit the partisan aims of a given day. After all, for the conservative, our role in this world is to pass on to future generations those things that are good we have received from generations past. We don't get to mutilate them first.

The More You Read Krugman, The Less You Know

I was reading this post today about my favorite partisan hack (h/t The Anchoress) when I came upon this quote from our hero made in 2006:

...it seems to me that [NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen], whose predictions about global warming have proved remarkably accurate, didn’t believe that he could successfully be portrayed as an unreliable exaggerator.[emphasis added]


Heaven forbid, we criticize the guru of Anthropogenic Global Warming. After all, Krugman seems to regard him as a veritable Kreskin of prognostication.

So, I went back and looked at what Krugman feels represents "remarkably accurate" predictions from Dr. Hansen. Back in his famous 1988 testimony before Congress Hansen presented the following set of predictions:



So, now we are 22 years into this prediction. How did he do? Well, here is the UAH data on Global monthly average lower troposphere temperature since 1979:



So, let us do a little reality check for Dr. Hansen's predictions. He gave himself three potential scenarios (A, B and C), so we will look at all of them at 4 year intervals (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008). Luckily, 1988 in the UAH data is practically at zero, so we can just go with the numbers. (These are the running 37 month average and predicted values pulled from the graphs themselves, so they do lack a little specificity, but not enough to obscure the basic point.)

1992:

Observed: -0.05
Scenario A: 0.5 (predicted value off by 1100%)
Scenario B: 0.4 (predicted value off by 900%)
Scenario C: 0.35 (predicted value off by 800%)

Hmm...not great. But maybe Hansen will rally.

1996:

Observed: 0.05
Scenario A: 0.6 (predicted value off by 1100%)
Scenario B: 0.4 (predicted value off by 700%)
Scenario C: 0.2 (predicted value off by 300%)

2000:

Observed: 0.175
Scenario A: 0.9 (predicted value off by 414%)
Scenario B: 0.55 (predicted value off by 214%)
Scenario C: 0.55 (predicted value off by 214%)

2004:

Observed: 0.26
Scenario A: 0.95 (predicted value off by 265%)
Scenario B: 0.75 (predicted value off by 188%)
Scenario C: 0.5 (predicted value off by 92%)

2008:

Observed: 0.2
Scenario A: 0.95 (predicted value off by 375%)
Scenario B: 0.85 (predicted value off by 325%)
Scenario C: 0.65 (predicted value off by 225%)

OK, so obviously Scenarios A & B suck pretty badly, but Scenario C isn't too bad, right? (Relatively speaking, of course.)

Well, no. Sorry to be a bastard about it, but I didn't tell you what these "scenarios" are supposed to represent.



So, of these options, Scenario A would seem to be closest to the actual situation vis-a-vis trace gas emissions. Scenario C would only apply if drastic cuts had been enacted.

So Krugman was greatly impressed by predictions that averaged being wrong by a mere 651%.

That explains much.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Catholic Beliefs Are "Outrageous"

This makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside:

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg no longer attends the "Red Mass"--a Roman Catholic service for members of the legal profession in Washington--because she doesn't want to be lectured by bishops on the evils of legal abortion....

"Before every session, there's a Red Mass," Ginsburg said. "And the justices get invitations from the cardinal to attend that. And a good number of the justices show up every year. I went one year, and I will never go again, because this sermon was outrageously anti-abortion."

Sorry Justice Ginsburg, but it would be a pro-abortion Catholic mass that would be "outrageous."

Nice to know there is a Supreme Court Justice who seems to believe they are the arbiter of what is and isn't acceptable for a believer to believe.

Monday, October 05, 2009

What's A Krugman Hater To Do?

The answer? Revel in this: How did Paul Krugman get it so Wrong?

Many friends and colleagues have asked me what I think of Paul Krugman’s New York Times Magazine article, “How did Economists get it so wrong?”

Most of all, it’s sad. Imagine this weren’t economics for a moment. Imagine this were a respected scientist turned popular writer, who says, most basically, that everything everyone has done in his field since the mid 1960s is a complete waste of time. Everything that fills its academic journals, is taught in its PhD programs, presented at its conferences, summarized in its graduate textbooks, and rewarded with the accolades a profession can bestow, including multiple Nobel prizes, is totally wrong. Instead, he calls for a return to the eternal verities of a rather convoluted book written in the 1930s...

It gets worse. Krugman hints at dark conspiracies, claiming “dissenters are marginalized.” Most of the article is just a calumnious personal attack on an ever-growing enemies list, which now includes “new Keyenesians” such as Olivier Blanchard and Greg Mankiw. Rather than source professional writing, he plays gotcha with out-of-context second-hand quotes from media interviews. He makes stuff up, boldly putting words in people’s mouths that run contrary to their written opinions. Even this isn’t enough: he adds cartoons to try to make his “enemies” look silly, and puts them in false and embarrassing situations. He accuses us of adopting ideas for pay, selling out for “sabbaticals at the Hoover institution” and fat “Wall street paychecks.” It sounds a bit paranoid.

It’s annoying to the victims, but we’re big boys and girls. It’s a disservice to New York Times readers. They depend on Krugman to read real academic literature and digest it, and they get this attack instead. And it’s ineffective. Any astute reader knows that personal attacks and innuendo mean the author has run out of ideas.

That’s the biggest and saddest news of this piece: Paul Krugman has no interesting ideas whatsoever about what caused our current financial and economic problems, what policies might have prevented it, or what might help us in the future, and he has no contact with people who do. “Irrationality” and advice to spend like a drunken sailor are pretty superficial compared to all the fascinating things economists are writing about it these days.

How sad.


This is from John Cochrane of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and, as you can tell, he has had it with the intellectual dishonesty that is Paul Krugman. And he's pretty much dead on as to why.

So what is Krugman up to? Why become a denier, a skeptic, an apologist for 70 year old ideas, replete with well-known logical fallacies, a pariah? Why publish an essentially personal attack on an ever-growing enemies list that now includes practically every professional economist? Why publish an incoherent vision for the future of economics?

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Krugman isn’t trying to be an economist, he is trying to be a partisan, political opinion writer. This is not an insult. I read George Will, Charles Krauthnammer and Frank Rich with equal pleasure even when I disagree with them. Krugman wants to be Rush Limbaugh of the Left.

Alas, to Krugman, as to far too many ex-economists in partisan debates, economics is not a quest for understanding. It is a set of debating points to argue for policies that one has adopted for partisan political purposes. “Stimulus” is just marketing to sell Congressmen and voters on a package of government spending priorities that you want for political reasons. It’s not a proposition to be explained, understood, taken seriously to its logical limits, or reflective of market failures that should be addressed directly.

Why argue for a nonsensical future for economics? Well, again, if you don’t regard economics as a science, a discipline that ought to result in quantitative matches to data, a discipline that requires crystal-clear logical connections between the “if” and the “then,” if the point of economics is merely to provide marketing and propaganda for politically-motivated policy, then his writing does make sense. It makes sense to appeal to some future economics – not yet worked out, even verbally – to disdain quantification and comparison to data, and to appeal to the authority of ancient books as interpreted you, their lone remaining apostle.

Most of all, this is the only reason I can come up with to understand why Krugman wants to write personal attacks on those who disagree with him. I like it when people disagree with me, and take time to read my work and criticize it. At worst I learn how to position it better. At best, I discover I was wrong and learn something. I send a polite thank you note.

Krugman wants people to swallow his arguments whole from his authority, without demanding logic, or evidence. Those who disagree with him, alas, are pretty smart and have pretty good arguments if you bother to read them. So, he tries to discredit them with personal attacks.

This is the political sphere, not the intellectual one. Don’t argue with them, swift-boat them. Find some embarrassing quote from an old interview. Well, good luck, Paul. Let’s just not pretend this has anything to do with economics, or actual truth about how the world works or could be made a better place.


Krugman backers, being the sane, rational people we all know them to be, are also given an instruction from Prof. Cochrane:

Krugman fans: Please don’t bother emailing me to tell me what a jerk I am.

Ahhhh..... the intellectual acumen of the Krugmanites. Can't you smell it?

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Two Countries Separated By A Common Language...Again

BBC gives us this:

A man is seriously ill in hospital after being shot by firearms officers in north London. [emphasis added]

In the States would wouldn't say this guy was "ill." We'd say "Dude, you've been shot!"

We're weird that way.