Saturday, February 02, 2008

Super Tuesday Predictions - Republicans

Second verse, same as the first.

Huckabee: big goose egg.

McCain: Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Romney: Colorado, Massachusetts

No Data: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia

Going out on a limb I'll say:

Huckabee: Arkansas

McCain: Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia

Romney: Utah

It is intersting to note I'm predicting both Clinton and McCain to win all but four of the contests on Tuesday. But, you'd never guess Obama was in such a dire situation fom the fawning media coverage. Romney, on the other hand, was buried by the MSM last week without so much as a "by your leave."

I can hear the press now:

Stupid citizens!!! Why won't you do what your media overlords want you to do?? It is for your own good!!!

Stupid democracy.


Anonymous said...

I suspect that your analysis is probably correct. Ironically, I think that Romney has a stronger chance of having a strong showing on Super Tuesday than Obama.

Most of the polls that I've seen suggest a significant chunk of undecided Republican voters is out there. Assuming that most voters are quite familiar with McCain as a national figure and remain undecided, Romney might get a second look. And most of the polls pre-date the last debate, in which McCain performed quite poorly and Romney did very well, and the talk radio barrage. This could give him a strong chance of winning CA, MT, and maybe even TN, IL, and ND. Of course, this might just be wishful thinking on my part.

I find very worrisome on a number of fronts, both as a candidate and a potential president. I like McCain as a man very much in some respects, but he seems quite temperamental, stubborn, arrogant, and not terribly circumspect. If he is president, I fear that he'll roll over on liberal judges and global warming. Moreover, he seems uninterested and uninformed on the massive entitlements problems the country faces. Not very promising at all.

Like you, I really wish the media would stop trying to determine the outcomes of elections with the incessant horse race and campaign strategy coverage. I suspect that the terrible coverage likely results from some combination of bias, ignorance, and the homogeneity of the reporters' backgrounds. If I ever get to run my own media empire, I will not hire anyone that went to journalism school as a reporter--only people with diverse backgrounds and fields of expertise need apply: doctors, lawyers, scientists, economists, etc.

The Iconic Midwesterner said...

McCain has his positives, but yes I don't think he would be the best bet on judges or "global warming." Romney has never done anything to encourage me to climb on his bandwagon either.

Really, I've got no dog in either fight. Never really did either. Maybe I getting too cynical as I age.

But nobody, and I mean nobody, is gonna get me to buy into the Obama fairytale.

Anonymous said...

Good for you on Obama! The whole Obama phenomenon reminds me of the episode of Cheers, when Frazier, in an attempt to demonstrate what rubes voters are, gets Woody elected to the city council.

Frasier: "But he didn't say anything!!"

However, the Dems are so predictable: They always jilt the candidate that they love for the one that they think can win, only to howl, wail, and rend their garments when they lose in the end. Hillary will win the nomination, but lose the general.