Wednesday, October 22, 2008

IMW Electoral Vote Prediction #5

Wednesday is the new Friday.

O.K., things are moving in the McCain direction for the first time in these.

McCain: 252
Obama: 286

The breakdown of the "toss up" states: PA, OH, FL, MI, MN, WI, VA, NV, CO, NM, IN, NH, MO & NC





Switching from McCain to Obama: None

Switching from Obama to McCain: FL & OH

Earlier projections:

#4 10/15 Obama 333 McCain 205
#3 10/03 Obama 273 McCain 265
#2 9/26 McCain 279 Obama 259
#1 9/17 McCain 315 Obama 223


G. Stelzer said...

I admit I'm a neophyte. This is the first national election for which I've paid attention to the polling before election day.

Usually, I don't care about the "horse race" aspect and how it unfolds; I don't care what other people think; I don't care about what others want me to think about what other people think. That is, not until the IM hooked me earlier this year.

The tightening of the IM's current prediction of electoral count appeals to my sense of what's believable. I just don't "feel" like the difference between Obama and McCain is as great, e.g. as posted on RCP. I don't "feel" like either candidate is really shoring up any significant support over the last few weeks. It seems the polls are reflecting the temporary prevaling mood of undecideds who drift back and forth between the candidates. I know, that's weakly based and unscientific (which is different than some the polls how?).

Maybe what I'm really hoping for is a train wreck with the election. I want IM's predictions to run contrary to the polls, but accurate to the eventual results. Then I want IM to blast away at the shyster-huckster crowd who perpetuate this polling crap.

Thanks IM! You're the greatest!

The Iconic Midwesterner said...

What?? Are you saying this election wont have Obama up by 11-15 percentage points? We haven't had such a point spread for an election not involving an incumbent since Hoover beat Smith in 1928, but this year we have "the One!"

Actually, I'd also like to be proved right. The thing is, you can usually pick out bad polling pretty easily (like I did back in the PA Dem primary here).

Actually, this year reminds me of the 2000 election more than anything. The press kept hammering the point that Bush had no chance, when it was razor thin.

I dont know what will happen...but so far it doesnt look like a blow out.