Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Wisconsin Results = No Speed Bump

Well, it's all over but the shouting:


Wisconsin Democrats knocked off two GOP state senators on Tuesday night, exacting a hard-fought political price on Republican lawmakers for restricting collective bargaining rights of state and local employees. National advocacy groups funneled tens of millions of dollars into nine races, seven of which have now been decided, turning a parochial skirmish into an all-out proxy war between Tea Partying conservatives and labor-backed liberals. But the historic recall effort, launched in the wake of intense union protests in February and March, ultimately fell one seat shy of reestablishing Democratic control of the state senate.

On an usual day of high energy and high turnout, Republican state senators Robert Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf cruised to wide-margin victories over their Democratic challengers, as fellow incumbent Luther Olsen managed to squeak by on a few thousand votes. Not all their colleagues were so lucky; Democrat Jessica King narrowly beat out Randy Hopper, while senator Dan Kapanke was easily felled by Democratic assemblywoman Jennifer Shilling. At the end of the night, the fate of the senate majority rested on Alberta Darling, the highest ranking Republican under threat of recall and one of the architects of the controversial collective bargaining legislation. She prevailed in the most bitterly contested and heavily funded recall fight, declaring victory near midnight as both parties scrapped over the final ballots.

The six districts that voted on Tuesday were ground zero in Wisconsin’s labor fight; each delivered substantial support to Walker’s gubernatorial bid last November, despite being carried by Obama in 2008.

It should also be remembered that all of the GOP seats at issue last night were last contested in 2008, which means Republicans won them during an election cycle that favored Democrats substantially. It was always going to be an uphill fight for the Dems, and they came up short.

To see how much of an uphill struggle it was one need only look at where I live, the 10th District. Here the GOP incumbent, Shelia Harsdorf, easily defeated her Democratic opponent, Shelley Moore. When I say easily I mean it. Not even close. This was despite the fact that copious resources were pumped into the Moore campaign. Indeed, Moore had a vigorous ground game here, which was far more visible than the Harsdorf campaign. It mattered for nothing. Moore still got crushed. In fact, Harsdorf won by a larger margin last night then she did in 2008.

It should also be noted, for all the talk I heard about high turnout rates rivalling presidential election years, it really didn't materialize that way. Oh, more people voted than usually do in these "off-season" elections, just not at presidential election levels. A little over 64 thousand votes were cast last night. However, in 2008 almost 99 thousand ballots were cast. That's a huge difference.

In the end, the Dems statewide got close. However, as the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. It really doesn't count here.

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