(1) His status as a straight shooter and a straight talker were undermined by his efforts to appeal to the conservative GOPers who had successfully sandbagged his 2000 run. It’s hard to seem like a campaign finance reformer when there are allegations that scores of lobbyists on your staff. Too much video and audio remains of former positions to jettison them sharply, even if you explain the change with a smile. It never works (unless you’re Mitt Romney). McCain had to “finesse” many of the statements that sparked his 2000 popularity.
(2) One reason he got independent voters support in 2000 was because he seemed to be willing to take on social conservatives, and the religious right in particular. His efforts to inch back into their good graces (a) didn’t totally win over those voters (b) lost him support among many independent, moderate and Democratic voters who perceived him the way poll-popular Arnold Schwarzenegger is now being perceived in California (as someone who perhaps doesn’t fit into either party classification).
(3) He linked his fate to that of President George Bush on the Iraq war, not only leaving little distance but at times advocating a stronger stance. Some will ultimately view this as a profile in courage. But by doing so he turned off many voters who above all want a change in Iraq policy, not a continuation of the Bush policy.
(4) He stopped being college campus cool. It’s hard to be if you’re not just supporting the Iraq war but seek a harder line. The incredible buzz and wildly enthusiastic reaction among young people, which got McCain LOTS of ink and air time, was greatly decreased. The media imagery this time was just not there.
(5) Immigration. If you note, his real political belly flop in the polls came when he worked with Kennedy on immigration reform and advocated not just border enforcement but an adjustment of the status of many of the many illegal immigrants already here. This was the last straw for many Republican voters who felt they simply could not trust McCain. Immigration reform is a highly emotional issue in the Republican base and has led to Bush’s poll numbers going down as well.
I think this is all right on the money. I would only add the distrust of McCain by conservatives goes back to McCain/Feingold, and his work on the immigration reform bill merely confirms his unsuitability to many (most?) of the Republican base.
Back in March, I wrote the following: McCain's Iran-Contra
McCain's stubborn refusal to face up to the unpopularity of his assault on free speech rights will ultimately doom his presidential aspirations: His long, slow, agonizing bus trip to what the Daily Show calls "crushed-in-the-primaries-ville."
But it doesn't have to be this way. McCain should pull a page from Ronald Reagan's Presidential history and perform the Iran-Contra mea culpa. He should go before conservative audiences and say something like:
"When I began the legislative process that was to become the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act I truly believed there was a great problem afflicting our country with unregulated expenditures poisoning our political process. There were some who worried that taking such a path would erode our precious First Amendment rights to free speech. At the time I disagreed with those that took that view. I thought it was a false dichotomy being proposed by the critics and that our freedoms would not be put in danger by what I was advocating.
Now, five years later, we can see the fruits of this approach...of my approach...and I am forced to admit that my critics were right. Please know, I never would have undertaken this effort if I had thought it would infringe upon the sacred rights we enjoy as citizens of this great country. But I, with great humility, must admit that that is exactly what has happened.
I will dedicate myself, whether as a Senator or as the President, to restoring the free speech rights my well-meaning but deeply flawed legislation has damaged.
And to all of those who have argued with me over years on this subject I want to add: Thank you for your steadfast defense of our Constitution and our liberties. I finally get it."
In the end it will all boil down to a syllogism:
McCain will never be the Republican nominee without saying saying like the preceding.
McCain will never say anything like the preceding. (He is simply too egotistical I believe.)
Therefore, McCain will never be the Republican nominee.
Nothing has really changed since the early spring, except that the disconnect between McCain and the voters is becoming more noticeable. Look, everyone already knows that McCain can be steadfast in his beliefs, so you can already list that in the "asset" column. However, being steadfast in defense of an idea soundly repudiated by folks you want to vote for you is the biggest of liabilities.
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