California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7% chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97% versus 93%.
The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
Wow. What a "prediction"!
Let's look at what has happened in California in the last 30 years, magnitude 6.7 or greater:
1999, 7.1 Hector Mine
1994, 6.9 Mendocino Fracture Zone
1994, 6.7 Northridge
1992, 7.3 Landers
1992, 7.2 Cape Mendocino
1991, 7.1 W. of Crescent City
1989, 7.1 Loma Prieta
1984, 6.9 Mendocino Fracture Zone
1980, 7.2 W. of Eureka
So, we have had nine quakes this size size 1978. Having at least one in the next thirty years is somehow surprising?
I refuse to believe the original study was this boneheaded. Given the errors in fact in the AP story (the Northridge quake was three big quakes ago, not "the last") maybe this is another in a line of "science" stories overwhelming their authors.
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