Step One: Create Foolproof Secret Plan. Oops!

Berezovsky says planning Russian revolution

Russian billionaire Boris Berezovsky said he is planning a revolution in Russia to topple President Vladimir Putin, in comments published on Friday.

"We need to use force to change this regime," Berezovsky, who has received asylum in Britain, told the Guardian newspaper.

"It isn't possible to change this regime through democratic means. There can be no change without force, pressure."

Asked if he was fomenting a revolution, he said: "You are absolutely correct."

Berezovsky, a vocal critic of Putin, said he was in contact with members of Russia's political elite.

He said these people -- who he did not name because, he said, that would endanger their lives -- shared his opinion that Putin was eroding democratic reforms, centralizing power and infringing Russia's constitution, according to the Guardian.

"There is no chance of regime change through democratic elections," Berezovsky said.

Maybe it's just me, but Putin isn't the sort of person I would want to have my intentions telegraphed to. He's not so much the head of a country as the godfather of a large criminal syndicate. Folks have a way of getting seriously dead when they oppose him.

In fact I'm sure the first question life insurance agents in London ask of Russian emigres is, "Are you a Putin critic?"

I bet the premiums are just hell.

Don't Let The "Little Philosopher" Do Your Thinking, If You Catch My Drift

"I made a mistake," World Bank's Wolfowitz says

World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz said on Thursday he made "a mistake for which I am sorry" over his handling of the promotion and pay increase of his girlfriend and staffer Shaha Riza.

"I proposed to the board that they establish some mechanism to judge whether the agreement reached was a reasonable outcome," Wolfowitz said in a statement he read at a news conference, ahead of the upcoming meetings of finance ministers in Washington this weekend.

"I will accept any remedies they propose," he added.

Wolfowitz defended his actions to send Riza on an external assignment to the U.S. State Department soon after he joined the bank in 2005, saying he was in "uncharted waters" in his new job.

"In hindsight, I wish I had trusted my original instincts and kept myself out of the negotiations. I made a mistake, for which I am sorry," he said.

But the World Bank's employee representative group called for Wolfowitz's to quit during a staff meeting at the bank.

Paul, you should have just asked yourself, "What would Leo Strauss do?"

Well Known Jerk Don Imus Fired For Being Well Known Jerk

Does this mean our long national nightmare is finally over?

Father Of Anna Nicole Smith's Baby Determined

Does this mean our long national nightmare is finally over?

Say It Ain't So, Mon. Say It Ain' So.

From the BBC: Police raid ex-Rastafarian temple

Police have arrested 23 people during a raid on a former Rastafarian temple in south London in the early hours.

About 60 armed officers targeted St Agnes Place in Kennington, just after 0300 following suspicions of "serious criminality" at the site.

The centre, seen as the headquarters of the UK's Rastafarian community, has recently attracted up to 600 people a day, mostly buying drugs, said police.

600 folks a day?! Maybe there is a lesson to be learned here. You know...have a nice relaxed atmosphere...a little light music in the background...five or six vats of sacramental wine...

Kurt Vonnegut R.I.P.

Novelist Kurt Vonnegut dies at age 84

Kurt Vonnegut, the satirical novelist who captured the absurdity of war and questioned the advances of science in darkly humorous works such as "Slaughterhouse-Five" and "Cat's Cradle," died Wednesday. He was 84.

Vonnegut, who often marveled that he had lived so long despite his lifelong smoking habit, had suffered brain injuries after a fall at his Manhattan home weeks ago, said his wife, photographer Jill Krementz.

The author of at least 19 novels, many of them best-sellers, as well as dozens of short stories, essays and plays, Vonnegut relished the role of a social critic. He lectured regularly, exhorting audiences to think for themselves and delighting in barbed commentary against the institutions he felt were dehumanizing people.

"I will say anything to be funny, often in the most horrible situations," Vonnegut, whose watery, heavy-lidded eyes and unruly hair made him seem to be in existential pain, once told a gathering of psychiatrists.

A self-described religious skeptic and freethinking humanist, Vonnegut used protagonists such as Billy Pilgrim and Eliot Rosewater as transparent vehicles for his points of view. He also filled his novels with satirical commentary and even drawings that were only loosely connected to the plot. In "Slaughterhouse-Five," he drew a headstone with the epitaph: "Everything was beautiful, and nothing hurt."

But much in his life was traumatic, and left him in pain.

Despite his commercial success, Vonnegut battled depression throughout his life, and in 1984, he attempted suicide with pills and alcohol, joking later about how he botched the job.

Here is a timeline of Vonnegut's life from the Indianapolis Star.

I always had a love/hate relationship with the work of Vonnegut. For everthing I absolutely loved, like Bluebeard, Sirens Of Titan, and Breakfast Of Champions, there were things I hated like Player Piano, Timequake, and (especially) Galapagos. The only book of his I was "in the middle" on was Mother Night, which is remarkable when you think of the length of his career.

I won't pretend I have any great insight into the literary legacy of the man. But, little bits of his books have always stuck with me and I have enjoyed the way they show up at unexpected moments to either give a different "spin" on the world I witness, or maybe just give me a good chuckle. When you think of how much you read that never makes any sort of lasting impact on you, you appreciate the good stuff even more.

Well Mr. Vonnegut, here is to the good stuff.

"Rule Britannia! Britannia Rule...The Bit Around The Isle Of Man!"

It is odd. I'm in the middle of reading Robert Massie's Castles of Steel, about the naval war in WWI. I find myself reading about Churchill, Beatty and Jellicoe and I can only shake my head in disbelief at what I see on the television. It doesn't seem like the two visions of the British navy are 90 years apart. It seems more like 1000 years.

Oh, For A Rainy Day

I'm just sitting here watching the April snow come down wondering what global warming has done for me lately. Not much.

Roger Pielke, however, has been spending his time in a more constructive fashion. Unfortunately he is finding that the IPCC report is a little less than intellectually honest.

The IPCC WGII full report is available (hat tip: ClimateScienceWatch). I have had a look at what they say about disaster losses, and unfortunately, the IPCC WG II commits the exact same cherry picking error as did the Stern report.

Here is what IPCC says about catastrophe losses (Chapter 1, pp. 50-51):

Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the 1970s. One study has found that while the dominant signal remains that of the significant increases in the values of exposure at risk, once losses are normalised for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend.

The one study? Muir-Wood et al. 2006 that was prepared as the basis for our workshop last year with Munich re on Disaster Losses and Climate Change. Here is what we said when the Stern Report cherry picked this same information:

The source is a paper prepared by Robert Muir-Wood and colleagues as input to our workshop last May on disasters and climate change. Muir-Wood et al. do report the 2% trend since 1970. What Stern Report does not say is that Muir-Wood et al. find no trend 1950-2005 and Muir-Wood et al. acknowledge that their work shows a very strong influence of 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons in the United States. Muir-Wood et al. are therefore very cautious and responsible about their analysis. Presumably this is one reason why at the workshop Robert Muir-Wood signed on to our consensus statements, which said the following:

Because of issues related to data quality, the stochastic nature of extreme event impacts, length of time series, and various societal factors present in the disaster loss record, it is still not possible to determine the portion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to climate change due to GHG emissions . . . In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.

The Stern Report’s selective fishing out of a convenient statement from one of the background papers prepared for our workshop is a classic example of cherry picking a result from a diversity of perspectives, rather than focusing on the consensus of the entire spectrum of experts that participated in our meeting. The Stern Report even cherry picks from within the Muir-Wood et al. paper.

The full discussion by the IPCC WG II has a bit more nuance, but it is clear that they are reaching for whatever they can to support a conclusion that simply is not backed up in the broader literature. Can anyone point to any otehr[sic] area in the IPCC where one non-peer-reviewed study is used to overturn the robust conclusions of an entire literature?

What happened to the importance of "consensus?" We have been constantly told that is the be all and end all of science, but now it is OK to ignore copious amounts of research because it doesn't support the preordained conclusion the IPCC gurus favor. And they have had years to get this right.

What a joke.

UPDATED:

I guess I'm not alone thinking this is a complete joke. Dr. Pielke's back with the following:

This is Just Embarassing

The Figure below is found in the IPCC WG II report, Chapter 7, supplementary material (p. 3 here in PDF). I am shocked to see such a figure in the IPCC of all places, purporting to show something meaningful and scientifically vetted. Sorry to be harsh, but this figure is neither.

I am amazed that this figure made it past review of any sort, but especially given what the broader literature on this subject actually says. I have generally been a supporter of the IPCC, but I do have to admit that if it is this sloppy and irresponsible in an area of climate change where I have expertise, why should I have confidence in the areas where I am not an expert?

I've known grad students in Political Science who were not green enough to make such fundamental mistakes.

Simply disgraceful.

More from Dr. Pielke:

A consensus conference with experts around the world came to very different conclusions. What happened to the importance of consensus?

I guess some consensuses are more equal than others.

Link Fest

Lots of other blogs put together groups of interesting links for folks to peruse, so, as a loyal member of the herd, I thought I'd do the same.

Over at The Glitering Eye they attempt to teach the New York Times something about math. It's probably a lost cause.

In a "Welcome to the party, pal" moment, Michael Van Der Galien notices the rise in left-wing anti-semitism.

Elizabeth Edwards is scared of her Republican neighbor. I wonder what she would think of the neighbors near the White House.

Somebody has finally noticed that the hysterics about the "death" of the CD might just be unfounded. I read several years ago that by 2007 no one would be releasing new album length CD's. Obviously the copy of Fountains of Wayne's Traffic & Weather I picked up the other day was illusory.

Finally, The Real Tough Questions

From the AP: Huckabee questions Romney hunting claim

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney was wrong to suggest he was a lifelong hunter even though he never took out a license, campaign rival Mike Huckabee said Sunday.

"I think it was a major mistake," said Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor. "It would be like me saying I've been a lifelong golfer because I played putt-putt when I was 9 years old and I rode in a golf cart a couple of times."

"I think American people are looking for authenticity," Huckabee added. "Match their record with their rhetoric."

Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, was dogged last week about his hunting activities after he remarked at a campaign stop that he has been a hunter nearly all his life.

The next day, his campaign said Romney had gone hunting just twice — once as a teenager in Idaho and last year with GOP donors in Georgia. Officials in the four states where Romney has lived also told The Associated Press that he never took out a license.

Romney explained later that his staff was wrong and that he had hunted rabbits and other small animals for many years, mainly in Utah. Hunting certain small game there does not require a license.

On Sunday, Huckabee said Romney's comments undermined his credibility as a candidate.

It is good to know that the Republican primary hopefuls are sticking to the red meat of the campaign trail, like who kills wildlife in a more authentic fashion.

I feel better already.

Get Those Cyclists Some Brownshirts

Minivan's rude introduction to Critical Smash

It was supposed to be a birthday night out for the kids in San Francisco, but instead turned into a Critical Mass horror show -- complete with a pummeled car, a smashed rear window and little children screaming in terror.

The spontaneous Critical Mass bike rides, in which thousands of free-spirited cyclists roam the city, have been a fixture on the last Friday night of the month since the early 1990s. But even bike-weary cops, who have seen their share of traffic disturbances and minor skirmishes, weren't prepared for what happened during the latest exercise of pedal power.

Here's the story:

Susan Ferrando, her husband, their two children and three preteens had come to San Francisco from Redwood City to celebrate the birthday of Ferrando's 11-year-old daughter. They went to Japantown, where they enjoyed shopping and taking in the blooming cherry blossoms.

Things took a turn for the worse at about 9 p.m., when the family was leaving Japantown -- just as the party of about 3,000 bikers was winding down its monthly red-lights-be-damned ride through the city.

Suddenly, Ferrando said, her car was surrounded by hundreds of cyclists.

Not being from San Francisco, Ferrando thought she might have inadvertently crossed paths with a bicycle race and couldn't figure out why the police, who she had just passed, hadn't warned her.

Confusion, however, quickly turned to terror, she said, when the swarming cyclists began wildly circling around and then running into the sides of her Toyota van.

Filled with panic, Ferrando said, she started inching forward until coming to a stop at Post and Gough streets, where she was surrounded by bikers on all sides.

A biker in front blocked her as another biker began pounding on the windshield. Another was pounding on her window. Another pounded the other side.

"It seemed like they were using their bikes as weapons,'' Ferrando said. One of the bikers then threw his bike -- shattering the rear window and terrifying the young girls inside.

All the while, Ferrando was screaming, "There are children in this car! There are children in this car!"

She had the presence of mind to dial 911 on her cell phone -- and within minutes, the squad of motorcycle cops who were assigned to keep an eye on the ride descended on the scene.

The cyclists were loudly demanding that Ferrando be arrested for hit and run.

According to police, Ferrando had allegedly tapped one of the cyclists' tires.

When the alleged bicycle victim was approached, however, he said he wasn't hurt. He also refused to give his name or any other information.

Then, after a few swear words, the alleged victim took off on his bike while the rest of the crowd continued to yell at both the cops and the van.

Sgt. Ed Callejas -- the lead cop on the scene and a veteran of Critical Mass rides since their inception -- said he'd never seen anything like it before.

"I've seen the bikes swarm cars, and scratch them as they go by. I've seen guys get out of their cars and start fighting with the bikers, but if you had seen the faces on those little girls in tears,'' Callejas said. "All I could do was apologize for what they had been through."

The sergeant suggested that Ferrando write a letter to the mayor.

Estimated damage to the car: $5,300.

Hmm...roving gangs who show absolutely no respect for the law or the rights of fellow citizens, engage in acts of intimidation, terrorize children, destroy property, all while the so-called authorities look on and do nothing. (Write the mayor a letter???? Jeeeezzzzussss.)

Is this San Francisco in 2007 or Munich in 1933?

A Bold Prediction

The folks at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University have released their latest Hurricane Forecast for the Atlantic 2007 season. In it they are predicting 17 named storms with 9 becoming hurricanes. The fifty year average (1950-2000) is 9.6 and 5.9 respectively. Now I wouldn't use the numbers before satellite coverage of the entire Atlantic basin was achieved in the mid 1960's, but those number are good as a very general baseline. (You can read about my concerns on the validity of these numbers here. I will note that even in this age of saturation coverage of the Atlantic they STILL missed a storm this year in the initial reportage. They had originally said 9 tropical storms took place in the Atlantic but it has been revised to 10. So please don't carve these into marble just yet.)

I have decided that I too will be releasing a hurricane forecast this year. I will give prediction now, and a revised one right after the June 1st start of the hurricane season.

For the Atlantic basin I predict 19 named storms with 8 becoming hurricanes. Additionally, I predict 21 named storms in the Eastern Pacific with 8 of those storms becoming hurricanes.

The preceding prediction is really too specific and I would be surprised to see those number hit close to exact. Things are too variable from season to season for that level of specificity, but this is what a forecast is.

I am more interested to see how my number do in a more general sense. Combining the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins I am expecting 40 named storms with 16 hurricanes. I think I can hit this number pretty closely.

Only time will tell. If I am way wrong people can rip me seven ways from Sunday...but they gotta wait until next December.

Now That's A Life Style

You learn something new every other day. No such thing as Zamboni DWI

NEWARK, N.J. - It's not drunken driving in New Jersey if it involves a Zamboni.

A judge ruled the four-ton ice rink-grooming machines aren't motor vehicles because they aren't useable on highways and can't carry passengers.

Zamboni operator John Peragallo had been charged with drunken driving in 2005 after a fellow employee at the Mennen Sports Arena in Morristown told police the machine was speeding and nearly crashed into the boards.

Police said Peragallo's blood alcohol level was 0.12 percent. A level of 0.08 is considered legally drunk in New Jersey.

Peragallo appealed, and Superior Court Judge Joseph Falcone on Monday overturned his license revocation and penalties.

"It's a vindication for my client," Peragallo attorney James Porfido said after the hearing. "It's the right decision."

Morris County Assistant Prosecutor Joseph D'Onofrio said no decision had been made on whether to appeal.

Peragallo, 64, testified at his trial that he did drink beer and vodka, but not until after he had groomed the ice. However, he told police he had a shot of Sambuca with his breakfast coffee and two Valium-pills before work.

It is hard (and evidently thirsty) work preparing that ice.

In unrelated news the Cardinals' Tony La Russa has just purchased a zamboni.

(Cross posted at (Get) A Sporting Life.)

Jackbooted Thugs, Canadian Press Edition

Saw this at CQ and found it generally irritating. Evidently the Canadian press are the upper crust and can't mix with the lowlier classes. Here is the experience of conservative political blogger Stephen Taylor. Press Shuts Down Blogger:

A couple of weeks ago, I headed down the street to Parliament Hill to cover the budget for my blog and for Blogging Tories. You can see the product of that effort here, here, here, and here. I have a Hill pass that indicates that I have been pre-screened by security and allows me access to a variety of places in the Parliamentary district. While hovering on the periphery of a budget-day scrum with Jack Layton, I was spotted by Elizabeth Thompson of the Montreal Gazette. She scolded me and expressed to this lowly blogger that he wasn't allowed to scrum with Layton. Largely ignoring her, I continued to mind my own business and started to needlessly check my camera settings. Thompson alerted Parliamentary President Richard Brennan to my presence and minutes later, security asked me to leave the foyer area.

I left the hallway outside of the foyer and walked over to the railway room to interview some 'stakeholders' of the budget. This went off without incident and during that time, I cheerfully chatted with some reporters that were in the same room.

Having completed my interviews with the stakeholders, I left and headed on over to the Rotunda where I had a friendly chat with Jack Layton. Elizabeth May and her assistant were also hanging around chatting when I saw Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc walk by. Having heard that his party was the lone opposition party supporting the budget, I asked him for an interview. He agreed. After the interview something ugly happened.

An official from the Press Gallery walked over and informed me that he had received "complaints" about me. "Thompson?" I inquired. "Complaints", he seemed to acknowledge. I pointed out that we were currently in the Rotunda of Parliament and that my pass allowed me to be there. "But you have a camera" he informed me. He called over a security guard to escort me from Parliament.

Unbelievable!

Yes, the Parliamentary Press Gallery, with no powers granted to it by constitution or statute, used security to remove somebody who had the right to be present on the Hill granted to him by the Speaker of the House.

Ed Morrissey added the following thoughts:

I'm not familiar with the rules for press access to Parliament in Ottawa, but I'm certain that the Speaker must be. If his office granted Stephen a pass to the areas in which he operated, it seems more than a little strange that the press liaison would have him ejected, especially for bringing a camera. Has the Parliamentary Press Gallery never heard of photography? Do they draw pictures for their newspapers instead of printing pictures?

I have had the pleasure of traveling twice to Canada and meeting the bloggers of the North. They told me at the time that the Canadian blogosphere was not as well established as the American blogosphere, but it wasn't from lack of talent. I wonder if the Canadian press has started to fear the rise of Canada's bloggers and have decided to use petty tricks to kneecap these independent journalists and pundits. If this is an indication of the professionalism of the PPG -- and I hope it isn't -- then they should fear the bloggers.

Of course you cannot ignore the political overtones. Obviously you have the Montreal Gazette attempting to silence conservative opinion, acting as de facto agents of the Liberal party. (I know, I know...what else is new?) The truth of this statement can be seen in the fact that this has happened before, as Taylor outlines in his post.

So I guess it isn't only in the United States where the press bestows upon themselves extra-constitutional powers.

Oh goody.

How About A Little Perspective Folks

I do wonder sometimes: Grieving couple commits suicide after dog dies

HYDERABAD, India (Reuters) - Unable to come to terms with the death of their pet dog, an elderly couple in southern India committed suicide by hanging themselves, police said on Monday.

The bodies of 67-year-old retired soldier C.N. Madanraj and his wife, Tarabai, 63, were found on Sunday in their home in a suburb of Hyderabad.

Police said the childless couple had held a burial ceremony for their dog of 13 years, called "Puppy," and hosted a feast for friends before hanging themselves in their bedroom.

"The couple described the grief over their pet dog in the suicide note they left on March 29," said police inspector V. Anantaiah.

I'm assuming they never saw Old Yeller, because if they had they would have dispatched themselves years ago.

Its a weird world out there.